Watch | Delhi Elections 2025: AAP’s vote share drops – who benefited?

Watch | Delhi Elections 2025: AAP’s vote share drops – who benefited?

While the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has retained its dominance in constituencies with a significant Muslim voter base, there’s been a noticeable shift in voter behaviour.

In 2025, AAP secured approximately 51% of the votes in constituencies with a Muslim population exceeding 25%. While this is still a strong showing, it marks a significant decline of 10.8 percentage points compared to the 2020 elections. Interestingly, AAP’s vote share increases as the proportion of the Muslim population in a constituency rises, but the overall drop is hard to ignore.

Now, let’s look at the BJP’s performance. In constituencies with a Muslim population exceeding 25%, the BJP and its allies secured around 31% of the votes. Surprisingly, despite AAP’s decline, the BJP has not gained from this shift. In fact, their vote share dropped by 1.1 percentage points compared to 2020. This suggests that the BJP’s appeal in these areas remains limited.

So, where did AAP’s lost votes go? The answer lies in the performance of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). In the 2025 elections, AIMIM fielded candidates in two key constituencies: Okhla and Mustafabad.

In Okhla, the AIMIM candidate secured 27.1% of the vote, finishing second to AAP’s Amanatullah Khan, who led with 48.5%. In Mustafabad, AIMIM garnered 16.6% of the vote, finishing third behind the BJP and AAP. While AIMIM didn’t win any seats, their presence clearly dented AAP’s vote share in these areas.

Parties other than AAP, BJP, and Congress, including AIMIM, secured over 9.3% of the votes in constituencies with a Muslim population exceeding 25%. This is a significant increase of 7.9 percentage points compared to 2020, indicating a clear shift in voter preferences.

The Congress party also saw a modest improvement in its performance. In 2025, While Congress followed AAP’s trend of gaining a higher vote share as the Muslim population increased, the extent of this trend was less pronounced.

So, what does this mean for Delhi’s political landscape? While AAP remains the dominant force in Muslim-majority constituencies, the rise of AIMIM and the modest recovery of Congress suggest that AAP’s grip on this voter base is no longer absolute. The BJP, meanwhile, continues to struggle in these areas, failing to capitalize on AAP’s decline.